Jennifer Schonberger · Senior Reporter
Thu, April 9, 2026 at 10:23 a.m. EDT 2 min read
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Thursday that the fund has lowered its global growth outlook even in the most optimistic scenario on account of the conflict in the Middle East.
“Had it not been for this shock, we would have been upgrading global growth,” Georgieva said in a speech at IMF headquarters in Washington ahead of the IMF’s spring meetings next week.
“But now, even our most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade.”
Georgieva said the outlook has soured due to infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, losses of confidence, and other scarring effects.
“A resilient world economy is being tested again by the now-paused war in the Middle East,” she said.
Strong AI and tech investment, supportive financial conditions, and other factors were driving considerable momentum in the world economy.
Now, Georgieva said, global economic growth will be slower — even if the new peace is durable.
She noted that different countries will fare better or worse depending on whether they can export oil and gas uninterrupted. Countries directly disrupted by the war — including oil and gas exporters that suffered under the blockade — and countries relying on imported oil and gas will bear the brunt of the impact, she noted.
She offered the example of Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest liquified natural gas facility, producing 93% of the Persian Gulf’s liquified natural gas with some 80% shipping to Asia. Ras Laffan has been shut since March 2, took direct hits on March 19, and could take 3‒5 years to restore to full capacity.
Georgieva appealed to countries to reject isolationist strategies such as instituting export or price controls to protect their economies.
“That can further upset global conditions: Don’t pour gasoline on the fire,” she said
For global central banks, she said there is value in waiting and watching, with central banks stressing their commitment to keeping inflation in check, but otherwise staying on hold — with a stronger bias to action if credibility is in question.
She stressed that if long-term inflation expectations threaten to break higher and create an inflation spiral, central banks should “step in firmly with rate hikes.”
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